Cryptocurrency derivatives exchange FTX has created a new, specialized futures contract for traders to bet on President Donal Trump'due south reelection in 2022.

Dubbed TRUMP-2020 (TRUMP), FTX appear on Feb. five that the contract expires to $1 if Donald Trump wins the 2022 United states presidential general election, and $0 if otherwise.

The launch of TRUMP coincides with a fresh poll from Gallup this calendar week, suggesting that the President's job approval rating has risen to 49% — his highest in whatsoever Gallup polling since he took part in 2022.

Amongst Republicans, moreover, his approving rating is up six percentage points since early Jan and is now iii points higher than his previous best.

The poll was conducted on January. 16-29 in the midst of the Senate impeachment trial — which has since resulted in the president's acquittal.

How to trade TRUMP

As FTX outlines, setting involvement rates, fees, inefficiency, spread aside, the price of 1 TRUMP contract should equal the probability that Trump is reelected: i.east. a 52% likelihood would hateful the contract should theoretically merchandise at $0.52.

All risk calculations on the contract are based on a "risk price" of $5 per contract, with the following required margins for i TRUMP:

Required margins on the FTX TRUMP-2020 futures contract

Required margins on the FTX TRUMP-2020 futures contract. Source: ftx.com

Withal, for those going long, the maximum initial and maintenance margin is the marker cost, and $1-marker toll for those going brusk.

With the ballot scheduled for Nov. iii, 2022, FTX says it will settle the contract once all the major media outlets accept unanimously projected a candidate as the winner — without necessarily waiting for the official vote tallies on a state-by-country basis to be fully concluded.

Notably, trading on FTX is not open to U.S. residents, nor to those in the E.U., U.Chiliad, Hong Kong, Singapore and other barred jurisdictions.

Market place rules

Aside from being field of study to market speculation, Trump'due south interactions with the crypto community have until now been fractious: he notoriously scathingly opposed both Bitcoin (BTC) and Libra via his favorite medium, Twitter, in summer 2022.

Yet this as well, provided some fuel for traders, with many in the manufacture thanking him for the "no news is bad news" publicity for cryptocurrency, or "Trump bump."